Clashes in South Sudan’s Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western Equatoria are not a breakdown of order; they fulfil a political purpose. This disorder has enabled President Salva Kiir’s regime to weaken its rivals in Juba, while fracturing opposition forces on the ground.
Salva Kiir has ruled South Sudan for two decades. Now 74, in poor health, and having postponed national elections to 2026, the question of succession has been a steady feature of political debate in Juba. Vice-President Benjamin Bol Mel, backed by Kiir’s family after diverting state funds into their pockets, seemed to be the prime candidate. That abruptly changed, however, on 12 November, when Kiir dismissed Bol Mel and placed him under house arrest.
South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over.
Louis Lobong Lojore has been the governor of Eastern Equatoria since 2010. He has entrenched his control of the state by building an elite coalition across ethnic lines and disbursing revenues related to the state’s gold-mining sector. Yet, Lobong’s reign in Eastern Equatoria is built on shaky foundations.
Tong Akeen Ngor, the governor of Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, South Sudan, has consolidated his grip on power by buying support, detaining members of the opposition, and ingratiating himself with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir. Tong Akeen, however, lacks popularity. The state has traditionally been an SPLM stronghold, and he is seen as an NCP interloper from the north.
Rin Tueny has achieved success in pacifying parts of Lakes state, including the Greater Rumbek area. His methods, however, have prioritised security and deterrence over human rights and legal norms. Consequently, there is little meaningful institutional oversight. While Lakes state may appear to be a ‘success’ story, a relapse into turmoil is possible.
Warrap is the birthplace of President Salva Kiir and the seat of his power. The state is home to many of the leading generals and politicians in his coalition, including—most notably—Akol Koor Kuc. Akol Koor controls Warrap state, and Governor Manhiem Bol Malek wields power by remaining in Koor’s good graces. Manhiem has used many of his predecessor’s methods and, like his predecessor, he has not been successful in quelling dissent and intercommunal clashes.
Since 2021, politics in Western Equatoria has become increasingly ethnicized, with heightening tension between the Azande and Balanda. The situation has been inflamed by the political strife between Jemma Nunu Kumba, the speaker of South Sudan’s Transitional National Legislative Assembly, and the opposition-party governor of Western Equatoria state, Alfred Futuyo Karaba. Tensions are high as armed troops from both the government forces and SPLA-IO patrol the state capital, Yambio, and state politicians amass war chests.
Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan.
Sarah Cleto’s tenure as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLA-IO) governor of Western Bahr el Ghazal is in trouble. Despite her grassroots popularity, members of the opposition are calling for her removal. Attempts to replace Cleto, however, have been stalled by internal power struggles—highlighting the complexities of Western Bahr el Ghazal’s ethnic politics.