Weapons Compass: Proliferation and Control of Arms and Ammunition in Wartime Ukraine

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on

Since the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, vast quantities of small arms, light weapons, and ammunition have been deployed to the front lines, some of which have been lost or abandoned by combatants and subsequently found and stockpiled by civilians over the course of the war.

Making the Enemy: The War in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal States

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on

Clashes in South Sudan’s Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western Equatoria are not a breakdown of order; they fulfil a political purpose. This disorder has enabled President Salva Kiir’s regime to weaken its rivals in Juba, while fracturing opposition forces on the ground.

Wun Weng’s Victory: The Rise and Fall of Benjamin Bol Mel

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on

Salva Kiir has ruled South Sudan for two decades. Now 74, in poor health, and having postponed national elections to 2026, the question of succession has been a steady feature of political debate in Juba. Vice-President Benjamin Bol Mel, backed by Kiir’s family after diverting state funds into their pockets, seemed to be the prime candidate. That abruptly changed, however, on 12 November, when Kiir dismissed Bol Mel and placed him under house arrest.

Civilian firearms in Ukraine since the Russian invasion

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on

How have civilian attitudes and perceptions towards firearms in Ukraine been impacted by the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion?

The Small Arms Survey has been monitoring what impact the ongoing war has had on Ukrainian citizens and their relationship with small arms and light weapons. With firearms increasingly prominent in today’s society, grasping public sentiment is essential for policymakers to craft evidence-based policies that truly reflect citizens’ real‑world circumstances and priorities.

Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on

Lebanon and Tunisia share a common struggle against extremism, but the social, political, religious, and ideological make-up of each country is quite different. The Small Arms Survey conducted a general population survey in the two countries between September and November 2023, in which 3,339 adults were interviewed about their views on key elements of their lives, violent extremism, and firearms.

Urbicide in Khartoum: An Analysis of the Al-Amarat and Mayo Neighbourhoods, 2023-24

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on

This paper investigates how the war in Sudan is transforming Khartoum through acts of urbicide—the deliberate destruction of urban environments. It draws on satellite imagery, eyewitness testimony, and analysis of conflict dynamics to show how the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces have reshaped the capital’s geography. 

On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on

South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over.

Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on

More than three years after the Taliban’s takeover and its seizure of the previous regime’s weapons stockpiles, the de facto authorities have taken steps to exert control over arms and ammunition in the hands of rank-and-file fighters, civilians, and private businesses. Yet despite the recent legal restrictions and their enforcement efforts, informal arms commerce and trafficking continue, and involves both older weapons as well as materiel likely sourced from the equipment that had been delivered to the former Afghan National Defence and Security Forces.

The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on

After almost two years of war, Sudan is in the grip of a humanitarian and political catastrophe. A conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to devastate the country. In recent months, the RSF has lost ground, and its efforts to create a government seem likely to come to naught. But what is the RSF, and what can learning about the paramilitary organization tell us about the future of Sudan?